Possible Scenarios for Google in China @ SXSW

After a long morning of travel and SXSW preperation, WebProNews popped in on an interesting talk from writer and tech watcher, Kaiser Kuo (here's his bio) about what might happen with the whole Google/China situation, which has essentially remained at a stand-still for the past two months, since Google made its famous announcement about a "new approach to China."

Kuo said right out that he doesn't have the "inside dope" about what's happening within Google, but he did give a fascinating history of Google's efforts in China, as well as a look at some possible scenarios that could play out. Some he listed specifically, include:

Worst Case Scenarios

- Blow up: Google decamps in atmosphere of acrimony
- Google.com blocked, possibly even Gmail, Gtalk, Google Docs, Buzz, etc.
- All google products exit from China (partnerships with mobile companies end)

Moderate (and according to Kuo, most likely) Scenarios

- Google.cn shuttered
- Google.com, Gmail, Google Docs, etc. unblocked
- Google research and development and sales continue to operate in China
- Google continues mobile partnerships

Best Case (and not very likely, but not entirely far-fetched) Scenario

- Google.cn stops censoring and still stays in china
- Pigs fly over a frozen hell scape

The session was not without a sense of humor, but that's not to say Kuo doesn't take the situation very seriously. In fact, he appears to be putting much more time into looking at the big picture than anyone I've seen (at least those outside of Google itself and the Chinese government).

Perhaps the most interesting part of Kuo's talk was about how  the wetern media's attention focuses more on one of two kinds of censorship going on - the "Great Firewall" censorship, where many sites are blocked at the ISP level. He says it's fairly simple for Chinese Internet users to "hop" the Great Firewall through proxies and VPNs. The other kind of censorship going on in China, according to Kuo, is the kind that really matters. This is "self discipline", which is carried out by Internet companies themselves.

If companies don't follow through with this kind of censorship, they face the risk of being shut down, having servers seized, etc. Some have been shut down permanently in the past, and others have been shut down long enough that they lost most of their users anway.

"Sad story indeed," Kuo calls it.

As far as the Google situation, "Google is going to have to shit or get off the pot," says Kuo. "The ball is very much in Google's court right now." Bejing realizes it has nothing to gain by pushing Google on the issue or being openly hostile towards the company, he says.

This week, Chinese Minister of Industry and Information Technology Li Yizhong reportedly had this to say: "I hope that Google will abide and respect the Chinese government's laws and regulations. But, if you betray Chinese laws and regulations, it means that you are unfriendly, irresponsible, and you will have to pay the consequences." He also said, "What needs to be shut down will be shut down, what needs to be blocked will be blocked."

Kuo says this is just more of the same stuff we've been hearing from China for the last 2 months.

Google CEO Eric Schmidt recently said, "Something will happen soon." Days ago, Google gave a congressional testimony saying they still intend to stop censoring results, but as Kuo notes, shutting down Google.cn would be a very involved process with large logistical challenges.

Update: The Financial Times is reporting:

Google has drawn up detailed plans for the closure of its Chinese search engine and is now “99.9 per cent” certain to go ahead as talks over censorship with the Chinese authorities have reached an apparent impasse, according to a person familiar with the company’s thinking.

Stay tuned to WebProNews.com for more SXSW Interactive coverage as the event continues into next week. Watch for live streaming interviews with industry professionals at live.webpronews.com.

Google Reiterates Support For Uncensored Results In China

When Google made its dramatic "new approach to China" announcement in January, it sounded as if the company might leave the country within the month.  Obviously, that didn't happen.  But according to testimony given today before the U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee Subcommittee on Human Rights and the Law, Google hasn't forgotten its ultimatum.

Nicole Wong, Vice President and Deputy General Counsel, spoke today about China, the Internet, and censorship, and by way of recap, said, "The attack on our corporate infrastructure and the surveillance it uncovered - as well as attempts over the past year to limit free speech on the Web even further - led us to conclude that we are no longer willing to censor our results in China and we are currently reviewing our options."

Wong then argued, "This decision is in keeping with out pledge when we launched Google.cn that we will carefully monitor conditions in China, including new laws and other restrictions on our services.  As we stated then, if we determine that we are unable to achieve our objectives, we will not hesitate to reconsider our approach to China."

This should provide some reassurance to free speech advocates who feared Google was backing down from a fight (and/or trying not to abandon a potential profit center).

Unfortunately, Wong didn't provide any sort of timetable with regards to when Google will reach a decision, which seems to leave the figurative door open to weeks or months of waffling.

Holiday Shoppers Turning To Social Media And Internet

Digital technologies continue to drive a new approach to shopping, with social media and mobile phones becoming key influencers this holiday season, according to a new survey of holiday retail spending and trends by Deloitte.

Social media is gaining traction with 17 percent of consumers planning to use social media during their holiday shopping, and 60 percent plan to use it to find discounts, coupons and sales information, More than half (53%) plans to use social media to research gift ideas, while 52 percent plan to check the gift wish lists of friends and family.

Consumers in all age groups plan to embrace social media over the holidays. While more than half (52%) of those who expect to use social media during the shopping process are in the 18-29 years old age group, 33 percent are in the 30-44 years old age group and 12 percent are in the 45-60 years old age group.

The mobile phone is another digital tool for the holidays that is on track to be used by 19 percent of consumers to help with their holiday shopping. Those consumers plan to find store locations (55%), research prices (45%), find product information (40%), get discounts and coupons (32%) and read reviews (31%). A quarter plan to make a holiday purchase with their phone.

The Internet ranks as a top shopping destination and continues to see steady growth. Nearly a quarter (22%) of consumers indicate they will shop primarily online this year and many are using the Internet to find special offers, with 44 percent of shoppers expecting to use a coupon they get online.

Reviews have become another key online source of information, with 39 percent of consumers indicating they often read consumer-generated reviews of stores or products online, and one-quarter (25 percent) saying they will likely purchase a product this holiday season based on an online recommendation. More than a third (34 percent) say that online consumer reviews and ratings influence their buying decisions more than advertising.

"Consumers are turning to mobile, online and social media during their entire holiday shopping experience," said Stacy Janiak, vice chairman and Deloitte's U.S. Retail leader. "Retailers should consider harnessing this activity to turn browsers into buyers with one-click access to coupons, promotions and purchasing tools."

"This year's leaner in-store inventories may also open the door for retailers to lure customers to their online channels where it is easier to access inventory, no matter where it is located."

The Internet is also changing the traditional store-based purchase process. Almost half of consumers (48%) say they like the convenience of shopping with multi-channel retailers, and 78 percent indicate they have purchased an item in a retailer's store after viewing or researching the product online. In addition 65 percent have done the opposite and purchased an item on retailer's website after viewing it in the store or catalog.

Have You Read This?

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