Estimate Puts YouTube’s Gross Revenue At $945m

An important, if not surprising, item: Another Google/YouTube exec has voiced his opinion that YouTube will be profitable this year.  More interestingly, an outside analyst has done the same, and also forecast a gross revenue figure of almost $1 billion.

Let's start by talking about Citigroup's Mark Mahaney, who generated that estimate.  As Peter Kafka explained, Mahaney took MySpace's established revenue-to-page view ratio and applied it to YouTube's stats.  In this manner, he predicted that YouTube will earn $945 million and $614 million this year in gross and net revenue, respectively.

Next year, Mahaney thinks YouTube might earn $1.13 billion and $737 million in gross and net revenue.

As for the other man who believes YouTube will do more than break even, he's Patrick Walker, a director of video partnerships for Google and YouTube.  Walker thinks YouTube's ability to help sell CDs and DVDs will prove important, along with the introduction of long-form videos.  The site's established knack at getting lots of people to watch ads should be handy, too, of course.

Now there's just the matter of whether or not Google will see fit to inform us about YouTube's performance as time goes by, since the company's generally kept exact figures under wrap.

YouTube May Expand Into TV Show Biz

It's no secret that YouTube's trying to catch up to Hulu in terms of offering premium content; the site's administrators often make a big deal out of movie and TV show additions.  What is under wraps - or at least hasn't been publicized in press releases and blog posts - is that YouTube might also be interested in charging for access.

According to Peter Kafka, "[I]t envisions something similar to what Apple and Amazon already offer: First-run shows, without commercials, for $1.99 an episode, available the day after they air on broadcast or cable."

And although negotiations between YouTube and content owners are preliminary, according to Kafka's sources, "both sides seem optimistic, since models for such deals already exist."

Plus, since Hulu is also likely to place some content behind a pay wall, YouTube wouldn't be putting itself at too much of a disadvantage.

Of course, there's no guarantee that this experiment would be successful.  YouTube became so popular by virtue of being free, and the introduction of fees could just turn more people onto less-than-legal alternatives like the Pirate Bay.  Still, Kafka said that YouTube will probably be "one of several outlets trying to get consumers to pay for TV on the Web in 2010."

Have You Read This?

> YouTube Scopes Out Concept Of Movie Rentals

> YouTube On Verge Of Supporting 1080p Videos

> Want To Buy Some YouTube Videos?

MySpace Picks Up Imeem

Imeem, which was able to declare itself "the first and only social networking service to secure licenses from all four major music companies" about two years ago, now appears to be folding.  Reports indicate that MySpace is set to acquire the business for a rather piddling amount.

Imeem was once a fairly successful organization.  In addition to sealing the music company deals, it'd earned the backing of Sequoia Capital (which funded Apple, Yahoo, Google, and YouTube over the years), and was attracting around 25 million visitors per month.

Unfortunately for Imeem, though, Peter Kafka wrote last night, "[MySpace] is paying a fire sale price of $1 million, sources familiar with the situation tell me, and could pay up to $7 million to $9 million in earnouts for key employees, who will likely include CEO Dalton Caldwell."

Otherwise, no one's quite sure what will happen.  MySpace might keep Imeem open - the site's built something of a name for itself - or just use Imeem's assets to further its own music-related efforts.

We'll keep an eye out for additional information and/or an official announcement, then, and in the meantime, Imeem fans might want to at least think through their options.

Have You Read This?

> MySpace Launches New Music Charts

> Yahoo Challenges YouTube On Music Video Front

> Google Aims To Make Finding Music Easier

New Forecast Downplays Importance Of Mobile Ads

Google and Yahoo may not want to count on their interest in the mobile market paying off anytime soon.  A Bernstein analyst has forecast that, even by the time 2013 wraps up, mobile ads still won't generate much in the way of income for either company.

Jeffrey Lindsay believes that mobile ads won't supply even one-twentieth of either company's total revenue at that point.  Peter Kafka reported, "He figures US mobile ads could generate $300 million for Yahoo in 2013 - about 4% of revenues."

And that's actually the more optimistic of the two cases if you concentrate on percentages and look at things from a certain angle.  Kafka continued, "[H]e thinks Google, who dominates mobile search in the same way it does in the wired world, could generate $600 million - less than 2% of its revenues."

Given all of the energy that Google's poured into its mobile efforts - think search, Android, the My Location feature, and so on - it'd be interesting to know whether the search giant agrees with Lindsay's estimates and is just planning for the long-term, or is counting on things turning out better than he expects.

Anyway, if you're interested in a broader perspective, Lindsay predicted that mobile ads would be worth $2.2 billion all together in 2013.

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